history – NOLAmotion Blog

The Most Predictable Crime — And How We Stop It Together

(Originally posted December 12, 2025. Updated Dec. 27)

NOTE: Thank you to the Opelousas Police Department for releasing a statement of warning and guidance for the public on their Facebook page that was shared as an online story by KLFY TV in Lafayette. The St. Landry Parish Sheriff’s Office responded to my email and prepared a Crimestoppers video admonishing people not to shoot guns in celebration and to report occurrences. Kudos to both agencies, but they need to create shareable links on their main webpages. The Sheriff’s page has no News or Press Release option in its menus, and OPD is similarly lacking in easy-to-find, shareable press releases.

Meanwhile, stupid people firing guns know no bounds. I’ll update this section with this year’s stories as I find them. See more information and stories at the end of this post under For more information.
December 26: Oklahoma man doing target practice in his backyard accused of fatally shooting woman blocks away

For 35 years, I’ve been doing a job I hate, a job I shouldn’t be doing, a job that rightfully belongs to someone else—one that, because it deals with the most predictable crime of the year, should be part of our public health, safety, and justice systems: warning the offenders, appealing to the public, monitoring the responses, and tallying the bullets fired in celebration on New Year’s Eve. Here we are again, on the brink of another New Year, and the public safety systems of Acadiana are not fully engaged.

I really don’t want to do this job; it’s sad to know that every holiday season, I’ll spend time popping everyone’s happy holiday bubble by explaining how one shot fired in celebration can destroy an innocent life, miles away. But that’s exactly how it happens.

In the first minutes of 1994 in New Orleans, as fireworks lit the sky over the river, a bullet fired in celebration from who knows where smashed through the top of the skull of Amy Silberman, a young publishing professional from Boston, killing her instantly. Here is her friend’s eyewitness account.

How happy she must’ve been, celebrating the New Year in the City of Dreams. For her friends and family, that moment of joy was instantly transformed into a nightmare because of a stupid fool firing a gun for fun. It’s sickening to reimagine the horror of her friends, the shock and pain of her family, and how their trauma resurfaced every New Year for the rest of their lives. But every year, that’s what I think about and why I’m writing. It doesn’t assuage my trauma to do this.

For two years prior, I warned that such a horrible thing would happen, and my pleas fell on mostly deaf ears. I tried to get local media to recognize that a story needed telling. I called the popular radio talk show, the local news media, the police. Until Amy died, nobody took me seriously.

That morning, when I woke up to the news (and the media that had ignored me in the prior weeks flocked to my doorstep with microphones and cameras), it was one of the worst days of my life. I cannot describe the helplessness and shame that washed over me as I felt responsible for failing to raise awareness and spark action. That feeling haunts me as I write this and see the same thing happening here.

I’ve spent half of my adult life warning that falling bullets kill. And I have seen in New Orleans how consistent public messaging, civic leadership, and community reporting can reduce this most predictable crime. In the years after Amy’s death, we lowered the gunfire rate by more than 70 percent. By 2000, the effort was so effective that I stopped recording shots altogether because so few were happening. It took a coalition of families, faith leaders, police, media, and citizens to make that happen.

Since 2023, I’ve lived in Opelousas, and I’m hearing the same chaos I experienced in New Orleans decades ago, compressed into a smaller city with far fewer people, yet with a much higher rate of gunfire per capita than in some of America’s largest cities.

Because so few people believed me and treated me like Chicken Little, in 1991, I began counting gunshots. That first year, I counted more than 1,500. I counted more than 3,300 shots in an hour and a half the night Amy Silberman died. I heard more in some of the years before.

Last New Year’s Eve, from my home near South City Park, I counted nearly 400 shots in only thirty minutes, with 300 fired in a ten-minute window between 11:58 p.m. and 12:08 a.m. That is a rate of 30 shots per minute — the equivalent of a small town turning into a free-fire zone every New Year’s.

For perspective, consider this: New Orleans, a city 23 times larger, now averages under 500 shots across the whole city on New Year’s Eve. Adjusted for population, Opelousas now experiences nearly 20 times more celebratory gunfire per resident than New Orleans ever did, even at its worst. Per square mile of audible area, Opelousas’ gunfire density is more intense than Kansas City, Washington D.C., or Oakland.

This is not a little problem in a small town. This is one of the highest per-capita rates of celebratory gunfire in America — and it is happening right here, in Opelousas neighborhoods, above Opelousas homes, and over Opelousas children.

It only takes one bullet to kill. I have said that line countless times, and I mean it literally. One shot. One angle. One moment of stupidity. We don’t get a second chance.

Why This Keeps Happening

Celebratory gunfire is not a “gun control issue.” It is a self-control issue. It is also one of the most predictable crimes in the world. Midnight. Every time zone. Every year. And yet, we still treat it as though nothing can be done. That is false — dangerously false.

What We Learned in New Orleans

New Orleans didn’t change because people magically became responsible. It changed because the community mobilized: civic leaders, the mayor, the NOPD, regional media, churches, neighborhood groups, and most importantly, ordinary citizens

We flooded the city each December with a simple message: Falling Bullets Kill! Citizens were urged to call it in. Report what you hear. Do not let this pass as “tradition.” People listened. The numbers fell; lives were saved. Here’s a link to a poster we created that told stories of people impacted by celebratory gunfire.

What Opelousas Must Do Now

If citizens do not report gunfire, there is little that the government and law enforcement can do. Opelousas cannot wait for the sheriff or the police department to solve this on their own. Every one of us must participate.

Here is what you can do — starting this year:

1. Call 911 when you hear gunfire.

Don’t assume someone else will do it. Don’t wait until it’s over. If you know the street, address, or the general direction, say so.

2. Talk to your neighbors before New Year’s Eve.

Let them know you’re calling in any shots you hear. Let the word spread that Opelousas is not looking the other way.

3. Share the message:

Falling Bullets Kill! One shot can end a life. Every bullet fired has an innocent destination.

4. Demand that our civic, religious, and neighborhood leaders speak up and take a stand.

This is not political. This is not controversial. This is basic public safety. (The sheriff of Caddo Parish stepped up in 2024.)

5. Demand that city and parish officials treat this as a real, annual public safety event.

It is predictable. It is preventable. And the plan should be announced every year, well before December 31.

What We Cannot Do

We cannot wait for tragedy. We cannot pretend this is normal. We cannot let another community bury a child, a visitor, or a passerby because someone wanted a few seconds of thrill and noise.

A Community Resolution

Let’s make a resolution — as a city, as a parish, and as neighbors:

This year, Opelousas will not accept a rain of bullets as the price of celebrating the New Year. We can fix this. And with enough voices, enough reporting, enough public pressure, and enough community resolve, we can make sure that Opelousas begins 2026 with something it has not had in years:

A truly safe and happy New Year.

Screenshot of a logo we created in 1994 for the New Year Coalition, an organization I co-founded in New Orleans that significantly reduced celebratory gunfire after the death of Amy Silberman. This image appeared on billboards around town.

For more information:

A Bullet and the Story of New Orleans’s Dangerous New Year’s Celebrations: A bullet found in an HNOC couryard sheds light on a Nwe Year’s Eve tradition with a deadly history (Historic New Orleans Collection, December 30, 2019

Falling bullet goes through boy’s face on New Year’s Eve (WWL TV, New Orleans, January 2, 2022)

A dangerous tradition: retrospective analysis of celebratory gunfire-related injuries in three tertiary hospitals (NIH, research in Turkey) https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11065979/

Past incidents show falling bullets can still kill or injure someone (South Bend Tribune, July 2, 2025)

What goes up, must come down: The dangers of celebratory gunfire (Baylor College of Medicine, December 31, 2019)

Virginia boy’s death from falling bullet prompts search for culprit, scrutiny of celebratory gunfire (AL.com, Aug. 10, 2013. July 4 incident, shows how the problem is not limited to one holiday season.)

The Real Game in Opelousas Isn’t Football — It’s Accountability

A Letter to the Opelousas City Council Regarding the Absence of a Parks & Recreation Commission, October 14, 2025

Councilman Gilbeaux (and Colleagues):

Thank you for raising the issue of the absence of a Parks & Recreation Commission at the last Council meeting. You were right to bring it forward. A functioning Commission is not a formality—it’s the mechanism that ensures fairness, transparency, and public participation in decisions that affect every neighborhood and age group.

Today, Opelousas faces difficult choices. The new 17,000-square-foot “community center,” essentially a two-court gym, will add substantial operating and maintenance costs to the city’s strapped budget, on top of the new stadium’s ten-year $632,000 annual bond payment. Together, those facilities could approach $900,000–$1 million in yearly obligations—before staffing or programming. And the timing couldn’t be much worse.

With the shutdown of the federal government well underway, Opelousas will suffer disproportionately compared to wealthier communities, making the ongoing capital investments in youth sports facilities, in an era of declining birth rates and enrollment, doubly troubling. Never before has citizen participation and oversight been more necessary. Here are conservative figures for you to ponder as you work to manage the city’s shaky budget:

Indicator	Estimate	Notes
Population	15,750	2023 Census Data
Opelousas Median Household Income	$28,000	LA median $60,000, St Landry $42,000, US $80,000,
Poverty Rate	35%	Among highest in Louisiana
Percent of households under $30,000	60%	Most citizens are barely getting by
Renter Households	57%	Majority are cost-burdened
FY 2025 Budget Gap	$1.4m to $2m	4 months of sales-tax shortfall
Stadium & Track Bond	$632,000 / year	10-year ODDD obligation
Total New O&M Burden	≈ $900k–$1M / year	Debt + maintenance

Feeding families is economic development. The shutdown is already significantly impacting local food security and the local economy. Loss of SNAP and WIC dollars will exacerbate hunger, hurt local grocers, and shrink tax revenues. If the shutdown lingers, the impacts will be grave. Using conservative estimates of the number of people using SNAP and WIC, here’s how that looks:

Federal Nutrition Program Impact on Opelousas

Program	Estimated Beneficiaries (City)	Monthly Local Spending Loss in Local Economy	6-Month Shutdown Loss	Total Economic Activity Lost¹
SNAP	≈ 4,500 individuals, 30% of the population (~1,700 Households)	≈ $550,000 or under $125 per month per recipient	≈ $3.3M	≈ $5–6M
WIC	≈ 2,000–2,500 participants	≈ $250,000	≈ $1.5M	≈ $2.5–3M

¹Every $1 in benefits generates roughly $1.50–$1.80 in total local economic activity. Combined potential 6-month loss: ≈ $7–9 million—comparable to one full year of Opelousas’s sales-tax receipts.

An expensive-to-maintain and operate high school football and track stadium, along with an oversized basketball gymnasium, destabilizes our fragile economy and faltering budget. Paving South Park to transform it into a high-end limited-use sports complex will not cause anyone to stay here or to move here. Dependable infrastructure, clean water, good housing, and economic opportunities are what drive quality of life.

Every dollar spent on South Park sports plans is a dollar not available to invest in youth development in life-skills programs, tutoring, trades apprenticeships, or arts, music, and culinary education, which often have higher “bang-for-buck” in communities where children lack access. And who can afford the $20 ticket price collected at last week’s games? Are projections (if they exist) based on potential ticket revenue?

The ODDD, formed as a business development organization, mortgaged a decade’s worth of sales tax revenue, accruing more than a million dollars in interest and limiting the city’s ability to fund programs essential for building economic resilience and a better future for all Opelousas citizens. I call them the Opelousas South Park Sports Development District.

Over the ten years of that ODDD debt obligation, SLPSS student enrollment is projected to drop by 4,000. Due to the lack of citizen oversight and failure to conduct non-partisan research, the mayor and ODDD are planning and spending for a narrow demographic that not only doesn’t exist now but won’t exist in the future. The Opelousas they are building is based on memories and on desires to have what nearby wealthier communities have, not on a vision guided by science, data, and community input.

Re-establishing the Parks & Recreation Commission is a fiscally responsible way to realign priorities with community needs. It would give the Council a structured, citizen-based advisory process to guide maintenance, programming, and equitable access across all districts.

Right now, every major city project—from the stadium to the community center to City Hall to the library—is being designed by the same Lafayette firm hand-picked by the mayor. That’s not how public procurement is supposed to work. The Council and the people of Opelousas have had no opportunity to compare costs, credentials, or design philosophy. The total spent on these services remains hidden from public view.

This lack of process invites misuse and guarantees inefficiency. The first step in restoring accountability is to re-establish the Parks & Recreation Commission, followed by transparent procurement reform.

City government investment in high school sports is folly. High school sports are, and should be, the responsibility of school systems. We are all on this ship, and we all can help set a better course. Citizen participation is built into the city charter, if only the administration would adhere to it. Let’s do the right thing and reinstate the Parks & Recreation Commission.

Thank you again for your leadership on this issue. Please keep pressing for the Commission’s reinstatement—it’s an essential step toward building a more balanced and sustainable Opelousas.

Note: This post was updated on October 15, 2025 with information provided by the city accountant at last night’s meeting. The hole in the city budget, caused by the failure to hold a timely vote to renew the sales tax that expired on May 31, will likely reach $2,000,000 —a gap unlike any the city has faced in the modern era. This adds weight to the argument that adding more overhead via new, limited-use facilities that produce little or no income is fiscally and morally irresponsible.

Donald Gardner Stadium on September 11, 2025. A $10,000,000 investment that represents the largest non-infrastructure expenditure in city history.

Bypassing the People, Bulldozing the Park

How Opelousas leaders are ignoring federal rules, silencing public input, and risking long-term damage to the city’s future.

(September 12, 2025)This week, city officials—including the mayor, the CAO, the parks director, ODDD leaders and SLED staff, State Representative Dustin Miller, and the project architect—hosted ConnectLA representatives at South City Park to showcase the proposed site of a new multipurpose center. What they toured, however, is a public green space the city now plans to clear-cut, and a historic public pool and bathhouse the administration aims to demolish. Any day now, the city is expected to release the RFP for demolition and construction. Yet the public has still not been shown the final plans, nor been allowed to weigh in.

This entire process is unfolding in violation of both the spirit and likely the letter of federal grant guidelines. Funding for the proposed facility is to come from ConnectLA’s Gumbo grant program, with dollars from the federal Broadband Equity Access and Deployment Program, which is intended to support community connectivity and broadband access. These funds are governed by strict federal standards ¹ under 2 CFR Part 200 ², the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) ³, and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) ⁴.

Federal rules require that costs be reasonable, necessary, and well-documented. Publicly owned properties must be planned and procured through a transparent, equitable process. Decisions to demolish existing infrastructure and natural amenities—like the mature trees and historic pool in South Park—require environmental and historic preservation review. Yet no such analysis has been conducted and shared publicly, and the city has selected a more expensive, destructive, and less inclusive path without justification. This puts the project at serious risk of violating federal cost principles, procurement standards, and preservation rules.

At the September council meeting, Councilman John Guilbeau asked why the legally required Parks & Recreation Commission still does not exist. The city attorney, whose primary office is in Lafayette, shrugged off the question, calling it merely an “advisory body.” That is an incomplete answer. According to the city code, the Parks & Recreation Commission is the public’s policymaking voice on all park matters. Without it, there is no lawful framework for planning, budgeting, or evaluating this facility.

This lack of legal structure coincides with a dangerously irresponsible economic context. The Opelousas economy is facing massive pressure from federal SNAP cuts, rising health insurance costs, inflation, and looming reductions in Medicaid and Medicare reimbursements. Local health care systems are already seeing cuts. Additionally, the city budget lost nearly $1 million in sales tax revenue over the summer due to the mayor’s and council’s failure to thoroughly read the annual city audit. Overall, as these effects increase over the coming months and years, our small economy could lose up to $3 million each month in purchasing power due to federal cuts, rising health insurance costs, inflation, and shifts in spending.

Meanwhile, newly released census data shows the national median household income is $83,730. In Opelousas, it’s less than $26,000. This gap is staggering. And it comes at a time when birth rates are declining and the city is not growing. Fewer children, fewer working-age adults, decreasing enrollment, and greater poverty mean we must spend public dollars with discipline and wisdom.

Instead, the mayor’s team has chosen a path of secrecy and spectacle. They plan to destroy a beloved, shaded section of South Park to build a sports-centered facility that may ultimately serve tournaments more than residents. They awarded several major city projects to a single Lafayette-based architect without transparency. They are adding debt and obligations without publishing operations budgets or maintenance costs. And they have never held a single citywide meeting to ask what residents want. (Here’s how a similar situation played out for New Orleans City Park.)

This is not how a poor city builds trust. It is not how public money should be spent. And it is not compliant with federal law.

Before any demolition occurs, the City of Opelousas must:

Reinstate and activate the Parks & Recreation Commission.
Halt all demolition and site clearing activities until a full environmental and legal review is completed.
Release the full project designs, budgets, and justification documents.
Explain the selection process and total payments to the project architect.
Conduct public meetings in every district to gather input and assess alternatives.

South Park is not a blank canvas for out-of-town architects and a small group of politicians and ODDD board members. It is one of the few remaining green spaces in the heart of the city—a space that serves people of all ages and abilities, families, seniors, walkers, artists, and outdoor gatherings of all kinds.

Opelousas doesn’t need another sports monument. It needs housing, jobs, clean water, safe streets, and a responsive government.

Let’s stop this demolition before it starts. And let’s rebuild the public process before we build anything else.

Without your voice, they are empowered to change the park permanently, and we’ll never get back that beautiful space. Tell your neighbors. Tell the mayor and council members. Tell your legislators. Tell ConnectLA. This is our park. This is our city. You are the key to Opelousas being the best it can be!

Here are their email addresses:

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking they don’t have any. Alice Walker

The vast majority of the trees and all of the shrubs lining the parking lot border, including two mature oaks, will need to be removed for the multipurpose center. The large live oak on the border of Market (left side of the photo), as well as one of the oldest oaks in the park behind the kiddie pool (actually another historic feature, a fountain that once stood downtown), will be negatively impacted by construction. The entire pool complex is planned to be demolished and filled, adding hundreds of thousands of dollars to the cost of the project, a potential violation of federal grant guidelines when less expensive sites are available. (Photo by author.)

All of the trees and greenery here would be removed, including a mature, 50+ year old white oak, a similar age live oak and other healthy shade trees. This area is the most popular location in the park for annual community events, fairs, cookoffs, family reunions, and cultural traditions. The popular swing set for small children is also located in this area. (Photo by author.)

This is what would face the parking lot and loom over nearby homes. The dark colors will add energy costs due to heat gain and the industrial building design is out of character with the existing park flora and infrastructure. The architecture firm touts no sustainability, energy efficiency, or water management credentials, such as USGBC LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), which indicate expertise in sustainability and thoughtful management of building impacts on sites, energy use, resource management, and nearby neighborhoods. Use of this site will radically impact the popular walking trail. Would you rather walk behind this building, or among shade trees, grass, and nearly century-old, sturdy historic buildings? (Screenshot from Lafayette-based DB Architecture’s webpage. This image is yet to appear on any city or ODDD website.)

Footnotes:

Publicly Owned Property and Procurement Standards
Since all properties in South Park are publicly owned, the decision-making process is subject to federal procurement rules emphasizing efficiency and economy. Without a strong, documented justification for demolishing historic assets and green space—rather than developing nearby vacant land—such actions may be challenged for violating these standards.
↩︎
Federal Cost Principles (2 CFR Part 200)
Federal awards require that all costs be “reasonable and necessary.” Choosing a significantly more expensive or environmentally damaging development site—when a viable, cheaper alternative exists—must be justified with evidence. Non-federal entities must maintain clear documentation explaining key decisions, including site selection.
↩︎
Historic Preservation Requirements (NHPA Section 106)
Federal agencies must consider the impact of funded projects on historic properties. Demolition of a historic building (including those eligible for—but not listed on—the National Register) requires a Section 106 review and may trigger mitigation requirements. “Anticipatory demolition” to avoid review can render the project ineligible for federal support.
↩︎
Environmental and Green Space Considerations
Federal grants often require environmental review under NEPA and EPA guidelines. These prioritize minimizing ecological damage and encourage the use of vacant or underutilized properties. Destroying public green space and mature trees—without clear benefit—may violate the intent and spirit of these regulations. ↩︎